Common MLB Betting Mistakes
With so many games in every Major League Baseball, or MLB, every year everyone has the opportunity to develop their betting skills. If you’re punting on MLB season and offseason results, steer clear of the common pitfalls described below.
Failing to Use All Available Data
The sheer volume of information on each MLB game allows you to make very educated punting decisions. The game is more measurable than any other sport, so be sure to check all hit and other records before you decide who to back.
The amount of data can feel a little overwhelming, and it’s tempting to make a case for listening to your intuition instead of sifting through it all. While there’s most definitely a place for following your instincts in Baseball punting, this should never be the only factor you consider. Take your time, look over information slowly, and watch your insights grow.
Overreacting to Star Players Sitting a Game
Once again, the key point to remember here is that Major League Baseball features so many games. There are also so many issues that can affect the results, especially since each team has 9 or 10 starting players. Basically, stars don’t have the same impact on a particular game that they do in other sports.
For example, even if Martín Pérez of the Boston Red Sox sits a game against his team’s New York Yankees arch-rivals, it’s unlikely to affect The Olde Towne Team’s overall chances of winning the championship. A few fans might be upset, though.
Disregarding External Factors
Do not overestimate how much external factors, such as the size of the pitch – which can vary quite drastically – can affect game results. Considering the pitch size with the individual batters’ styles might seem obvious now, but in the heat of the moment it is often overlooked.
Overemphasising the Starting Pitcher
In years gone by, starting pitchers were routinely expected to go up to as many as 9 innings, but in more recent times lower pitch counts are the norm, with more reliance on the bullpen than we’ve seen in the past.
The take-home message here is that the starting pitchers are still important, but now they’re just one factor in a group of many. You also need to keep a close eye on each side’s bullpen, and how much the bullpens have been used recently.
Over-Valuing Home Field Advantage
The home-field advantage is a well-known concept in sports, especially in Soccer and National Football League games. The effects of home field familiarity and a bigger fanbase seem less pronounced in MLB, and the home team wins around 54% of regular season games.
By contrast, British Premier League home teams win 46% of their matches, while they both tie and lose away games 27% of the time. So, while the home-field advantage is real in Major League Baseball, it’s pretty slight and should be given a proportional amount of consideration. Once you start watching and placing bets on MLB betting sites NZ results regularly, you’ll be able to see the even split of home and away wins for yourself.